In South Africa, we are so accustomed to worrying about economic prospects that I was half-surprised when the credit rating agency Moody’s changed its outlook for South Africa from stable to positive. One wants to ask if they’re sure.
South Africa is still on junk status with a rating of Ba2, but a positive outlook means that the chance of an upgrade is slightly better. They say that rising oil and fuel prices will affect short-term growth prospects, but they are positive about our macroeconomic stability and the government of national unity’s plans to bring public debt under control, maintain social spending, and push through structural reforms to spur economic growth and job creation.
An example is how the Treasury was able to provide fuel price relief and finance it from higher-than-expected tax revenue and underspending. It therefore does not have an impact on the fiscal framework. Progress with reforms includes, for example, recent good news from Transnet. The eight ports they manage delivered their best performance in 15 years in the 2025/26 financial year, handling more than 300 million tons of cargo. It appears that their rail transport infrastructure projects are gaining momentum.
Although we will all agree that cost-of-living pressure is real, there are still reasons to be optimistic. Don’t let the repo rate decision cause a “vibesession.”