I’m an economist at North-West University. I give talks on where the economy is, why it got there, and what to watch next, for business chambers, financial advisers, business schools and boards.
Every talk is built on current data from Stats SA, the Reserve Bank and the BER, and every talk leaves time for the audience to argue back.
In February the Treasury sketched its bad case: a war, dear oil, a weaker rand and higher interest rates. By April it had happened. I look at what it costs and who pays, and on 21 October I’ll score the Minister against it.
The mini-budget on 21 October: can the Minister hold the line through an oil shock, and who pays for it? I look at the debt arithmetic, the refinancing wall, and where the R17.2 billion of fuel levy relief went.
Today’s argument about redistribution and investment is thirty years old. I test both sides against the data, including a simple model of what drives private investment.
The regular update: the global picture, markets, households, investment, the Budget, trade, and interest rates and inflation, ending with what to watch in the next six months.
Why the rand moves, how much of it is about South Africa and how much about the world, and what that means for your prices, your savings and your business.
Tell me who the audience is, how long you have, and whether it’s online or in person. I’ll suggest a talk and tailor it.
