Inflation and the repo rate decision
StatsSA published June’s inflation numbers yesterday, and the increase surprised economists. The inflation rate was 5% year-on-year and quite far from the 3% target. The increase was driven by fuel price increases in June. The prices of passenger transport services (taxis and buses) also increased in response to the high fuel prices. The category Housing […]
Households are under pressure
Over the past week, there were a few indicators that raised concern. They show that fuel price shocks have consequences. The FNB and Bureau’s consumer confidence index declined sharply in the second quarter. The fuel price increases in April and May are estimated to have caused approximately R45 billion in additional costs throughout the economy, […]
Inflation
Everything went according to plan (sort of), and the US and Iran have signed the 60-day peace agreement. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon. Oil prices will then fall, and then fuel prices and we will be almost be back to the good old days of February. But is it really that simple? Whether […]
Moody’s is positive about us
In South Africa, we are so accustomed to worrying about economic prospects that I was half-surprised when the credit rating agency Moody’s changed its outlook for South Africa from stable to positive. One wants to ask if they’re sure. South Africa is still on junk status with a rating of Ba2, but a positive outlook […]
Oil, inflation and the repo rate decision
Rumours about of a possible deal between the US and Iran (on Monday 25 May), but will it influence Thursday’s repo rate decision? First off, the Monetary Policy Committee needs to account for the increase in consumer price inflation in April. The inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 4% in April. This is mainly attributable […]