Rand Dollar Digest (31 July)
Published 31 July 2026 · Latest rate 16.64 on 30 Jul · Last complete week 16.54 · Fair value 16.72 Where the rand stands The rand last traded at 16.64 on 30 July. The Digest works on averages rather than daily closes, so its figures are anchored on the last complete week — 20 to 24 July […]
Rand Dollar Digest
Rand Dollar Digest Week ending 17 July 2026 · Spot 16.41 · Fair value 16.66 Where the rand stands The rand is trading at 16.41 to the dollar in the week just ended. Over June it averaged 16.40, and our fair-value model — a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and relative prices, money, activity […]
Inflation and the repo rate decision
StatsSA published June’s inflation numbers yesterday, and the increase surprised economists. The inflation rate was 5% year-on-year and quite far from the 3% target. The increase was driven by fuel price increases in June. The prices of passenger transport services (taxis and buses) also increased in response to the high fuel prices. The category Housing […]
The economics of Ellis Park rugby tickets
(This is the English version of my Afrikaans story in Die Papier on Friday 10 July) On Saturday before last, the Springboks ran out against England in front of a packed Ellis Park. But the Tuesday before that, the stadium had been on track to be half empty. Tickets started at R950, sales were sluggish, […]
Households are under pressure
Over the past week, there were a few indicators that raised concern. They show that fuel price shocks have consequences. The FNB and Bureau’s consumer confidence index declined sharply in the second quarter. The fuel price increases in April and May are estimated to have caused approximately R45 billion in additional costs throughout the economy, […]
AI won’t take all the work — but it may remove the first rung of the ladder
(This is the English version of my Afrikaans story in Die Papier on Friday 19 June) While South Africa celebrates Youth Day this week, the familiar questions about young people and the future of work feel more urgent than ever. We have a generation already contending with high unemployment, weak economic growth, and an education […]
Inflation
Everything went according to plan (sort of), and the US and Iran have signed the 60-day peace agreement. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon. Oil prices will then fall, and then fuel prices and we will be almost be back to the good old days of February. But is it really that simple? Whether […]
The power of a little more
Why Small Gains Can Transform South Africa (This is the English version of my Afrikaans story in Die Papier on Friday 29 May) South Africa grew its economy by 1.1% last year. Per capita, once you subtract population growth, that rounds to almost nothing. Life expectancy sits around 65, a full decade below the global […]
Moody’s is positive about us
In South Africa, we are so accustomed to worrying about economic prospects that I was half-surprised when the credit rating agency Moody’s changed its outlook for South Africa from stable to positive. One wants to ask if they’re sure. South Africa is still on junk status with a rating of Ba2, but a positive outlook […]
Oil, inflation and the repo rate decision
Rumours about of a possible deal between the US and Iran (on Monday 25 May), but will it influence Thursday’s repo rate decision? First off, the Monetary Policy Committee needs to account for the increase in consumer price inflation in April. The inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 4% in April. This is mainly attributable […]